In February, massive layoffs swept across the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in compliance with requests from the Trump administration. These cuts resulted in industry-wide concerns about immediate impacts to weather forecasts and climate studies on Earth — but experts are also worried that such abrupt reductions in the NOAA workforce can greatly affect how scientists monitor cosmic weather, too.
More than 800 NOAA employees were impacted by the agency-wide staff reduction from its workforce of about 13,000. Space.com reported in early March that a huge range of employees were either let go or enticed to take an early retirement as part of these cuts, and some of those employees included those who contributed to the success of its Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). The reductions were all part of an effort led by the Trump Administration’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) — spearheaded by billionaire SpaceX CEO Elon Musk — to slash federal programs and workforces that the administration believes are “wasting” taxpayer money.
Ahead of a webinar put on by the American Meteorological Society (AMS) on March 4 meant to help educate members of both the public and the press about the work done at SWPC, Space.com reached out to several members of NOAA’s communications team about the layoffs. The response was very similar to what the organization has reportedly been saying to news outlets who ask for comment: an email stating that “no one on this webinar will be able to speak to recent workforce cuts.”
“From someone who is new to the field of space physics as a graduate student, I am worried about the job opportunities for me once I graduate. NOAA, the National Science Foundation (NSF), and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) employ quite a few space physicists, and shrinking the federal workforce means eliminating, maybe permanently, some of these positions,” Vincent Ledvina, an avid aurora chaser and intern at the Aerospace Corporation (PSL/SSAL), told Space.com. “This is unsettling, and there is already a pipeline problem in the field — more people are retiring than we have fresh graduate students to replace these scientists.”
There are many end users, such as in the agriculture industry, that rely on space weather forecasts for day-to-day operations. This industry in particular has become more reliant on electricity and different types of technology, such as GPS. However, during powerful space weather events, signal disruptions and losses can impact everyday operations ranging from planting to fertilizer application.
“As a board director for a rural electric cooperative in Minnesota, we need to have predictions and local responses to protect the grid,” Kathryn Draeger, Statewide Director of the University of Minnesota Regional Sustainable Development Partnerships, told Space.com. “85% of Minnesota’s geography is provided electricity through locally led rural electric coops. This is a constituent of NOAA’s that needs further attention and support. Decreasing the capacity to support this sector makes our nation less resilient and more vulnerable to space weather.”
The dependence on space weather forecasts
Power grid operators are just one example of companies that rely on space weather products provided by SWPC in order to track potential impacts of environmental disturbances such as radio blackouts. There are many other sectors that are considered end-users for space weather observations, forecasts, research, and even modeling for future events that could have devastating effects. Other divisions identified by NOAA in a survey at the end of 2024 that rely on the work done by SWPC scientists and personnel include electric power, aviation, emergency management, human spaceflight and even agriculture. A series of solar storms in May 2024, now collectively known as the “Gannon Storm,” was the first extreme geomagnetic event (G5) Earth has experienced since 2003. Gannon brought with it not just a memorizing aurora show, but also complications to different types of technology.
“The Gannon storm in May 2024 occurred during planting season and the economic impact from delayed planting due to GPS failure are still to be estimated. That storm was dramatic, but I have concerns about even larger storms that could impact the electric grid and the critical need to continue honing predication capability and information sharing is urgent,” Draeger said. “I don’t think there’s a lot of education out there right now; when farmers’ GPS go down, they don’t know why, so there’s a lot more work to be done.”
Terry Griffin, a professor at Kansas State University, told Space.com that he agrees the Gannon storm began an important conversation on how solar storms could impact the agriculture industry. Griffin and his team released a report at the beginning of March on the “Impact of the Gannon Storm on Corn Production Across the Midwestern USA,” highlighting the significance of continued research and support for the space weather community.
“One analogy that seems pertinent is how the adage of ‘milk comes from the store’ implies less reliance on farms; many people have a similar notion that they can receive weather information from commercial sources. We have a lot of work cut out for us to educate the masses,” Griffin said. “Many ‘experts’ stated the outage was a once in a lifetime event, but my analysis of the historic data and consultation with space weather scientists suggests that this type of event may not even be once in a solar cycle frequency. Farmers and construction end users should be prepared for GNSS signal degradation in 2025 and 2026.”
Although space weather events are typically more sporadic than terrestrial weather events, just like it only takes one hurricane to wipe out an entire community, one powerful solar storm could have substantial impacts globally without timely warnings so people can take proper precautions. Some of the most vigorous solar storms in history caused power blackouts, disruptions in phone communications and GPS navigation signals, destroyed satellites and altered the flight paths of aircrafts. In fact, last year in Constellations, Kratos Defense’s online source for digital content, NOAA’s Geostationary Earth Orbit Observations (GOES) Program Director, Pam Sullivan, shared her concerns that we could see the first-ever global “trillion-dollar disaster” if we had another extremely powerful solar storm like the Carrington Event in September of 1859. This event triggered failures and fires at telegraph stations across parts of the globe including North America and Europe.
Although space weather events are typically more sporadic than terrestrial weather events, just like it only takes one hurricane to wipe out an entire community, one powerful solar storm could have substantial impacts globally without timely warnings so people can take proper precautions. Some of the most vigorous solar storms in history caused power blackouts, disruptions in phone communications and GPS navigation signals, destroyed satellites and altered the flight paths of aircrafts.
In fact, last year in Constellations, Kratos Defense’s online source for digital content, NOAA’s Geostationary Earth Orbit Observations (GOES) Program Director, Pam Sullivan, shared her concerns that we could see the first-ever global “trillion-dollar disaster” if we had another extremely powerful solar storm like the Carrington Event in September of 1859. This event triggered failures and fires at telegraph stations across parts of the globe including North America and Europe.
Space weather impacts on everyday life
Technology plays a huge role in our everyday lives, and our reliance on it will only increase as time goes on. Drivers already rely on applications such as Google Maps to get to and from locations and first responders rely on satellite services to navigate life-threatening scenarios like wildfire mitigation and ocean rescues, for instance. But with each passing day, technology’s footprint gets a little deeper.
That’s why some veterans in the space industry say now is the ideal time to make sure our nation is protected through continued research, advanced satellite systems and improved accuracy in forecasting.
“If we go back to the Gannon storm last year, overall, there weren’t huge impacts because of all of the research and mitigation plans put in place over the last six or seven years. I think it could have been a lot worse if we didn’t have those capabilities now so if those are compromised by lack of resources. If another storm like that — or worse — occurs, we can see more widespread impacts to everyday life,” Steve Clarke, a former Deputy Associate Administrator and Director at NASA and former Senior Policy Analyst at the White House, told Space.com. But for now, Clarke added, we’ll have to wait and see what impacts there might be in the long run, including if there are any ramifications regionally and across the globe when it comes to the availability of space weather resources.
Clarke, who has worked in both the government and the private sector for more than 40 years, also shared that he hopes that any future decisions that impact space weather forecasting from staff to budget cuts are carefully considered.
“I do support government efficiencies and looking for ways to make things more streamlined and less costly to the taxpayer, but there is definitely a better way to go about it than the way it’s going about now. I think there could have been a much more structured way of going in and looking at all of the government agencies, including NOAA, NSF and NASA,” Clarke said.
“Perhaps there are ways we can bring this to the attention of the administration; it’s not too late. Just take a pause and come up with a well-structured plan to go in and look at the programs in government agencies and for ways to make them more efficient, but not cut the significant benefit that these programs provide the American people.”
#Trump #administrations #NOAA #layoffs #affected #space #weather #service #tracks #solar #storms
