NFL Draft Live: Did we hit or miss on each first-round pick?

Gorney’s lookback: We saw Armand Membou in high school and he attended Rivals Camp but his body needed some reshaping and we weren’t sold that someone just over 6-foot-4 could make it as an elite offensive tackle at the next level and beyond.

We were wrong because his arm length at 82 inches is elite, he can power through defensive linemen and he has outstanding balance. We were wrong on Membou, who we thought would have a nice college career but wouldn’t be nearly as dominant as he turned out to be at Missouri.

DID WE HIT OR MISS ON HIM? … Miss

Gorney’s lookback: There have been questions about whether Tetairoa McMillan “loves football” and to be honest I had the same concerns the first few times I met him. He was playing in – let’s call it – an underground football 7on7 event during COVID next to a shooting range in Corona, Calif. He was so quiet and reserved it was hard to imagine he could turn it on. So quiet that he was uncomfortable doing an interview. He went to Hawaii once during the recruiting process and didn’t even take his phone.

But between the lines he’s an absolute dog. He’s ultra-competitive and he has unreal balance, playmaking ability and hands. Pairing him with someone like Bryce Young will be a perfect fit.

Over time as I got to know him better, I only liked him more and more and he ended up as a five-star receiver. TMac was also a very willing blocker in games and I loved to see him turn that on as well.

DID WE HIT OR MISS ON HIM? … Hit

Gorney’s lookback: Congratulations to Kelvin Banks because his resume at Texas made him a first-round selection but for us in the rankings business, this one is heartbreaking. We had Banks as a five-star earlier in the cycle and he was phenomenal at the Dallas Rivals Camp. He just bullied everybody, had a great, barrel-chested frame and was just awesome. But then we saw him struggle mightily at the Under Armour Game. He was curiously bad, and we overreacted and dropped him to a four-star.

We were wrong. He’s 6-foot-5, 315 pounds and has a wingspan of 84 3/8 inches. What else could we have possibly wanted? If he was just OK at the Under Armour Game, he would’ve stayed a five and rightfully so.

DID WE HIT OR MISS ON HIM? … Push

Gorney’s lookback: We never saw Colston Loveland in high school as he went to school in rural Idaho and never attended any big events. His tape was exceptional, though, and he ended up as a four-star prospect but outside of the Rivals250 because we wanted to be conservative on his ranking since he was playing very low-level competition and we didn’t see him anywhere.

Michigan beat out Oregon State and Boise State in what ended up being an easy call. But with Penn State’s Tyler Warren still out there, this doesn’t seem like the best pick possible.

DID WE HIT OR MISS ON HIM? … Push

Gorney’s lookback: Mykel Williams is still 20 years old and if Travon Walker was worthy of being the No. 1 overall pick then San Francisco is getting a steal here in the first round. Williams plays hard, has all the perfect measureables at 6-foot-5 and 267 pounds with long arms and looks like the prototypical NFL edge rusher.

And big credit goes to Georgia coach Kirby Smart because until midway through his senior season, Williams was committed to USC. It was only because Smart never gave up, kept going after Williams and then finally flipped him after an in-home visit that Georgia landed him.

Williams has every metric to be successful in the NFL and beyond as a former five-star.

DID WE HIT OR MISS ON HIM? … Hit

Gorney’s lookback:We should’ve been higher on Tyler Booker. He measured just under 6-foot-5 and 321 pounds with extraordinarily long arms at more than 84 inches so that could be a learning lesson for us moving forward – take a shot on guys with all the metrics.

Booker was not as physical in high school as he was once he got to Alabama and really adopted a tough, mean mentality on that offensive line. Georgia was believed to be the frontrunner in his recruitment with Florida, Oregon and others but the Crimson Tide won out.

DID WE HIT OR MISS ON HIM? … Push

Gorney’s lookback: What has this draft told elite high school defensive tackles so far? Want to be a first rounder, Michigan is not a bad place to be. Mason Graham went earlier in the first round and now Kenneth Grant is off the board.

The concern with Grant coming out of Merrillville, Ind., was that he was 340 pounds and didn’t necessarily carry it all that well. He was fast and physical for his size but we clearly did not see a potential first-rounder there, especially since he was ranked as a high three-star.

It is a little surprising that Miami went with Grant since Oregon’s Derrick Harmon was still on the board.

DID WE HIT OR MISS ON HIM? … Miss

Gorney’s lookback: Tyler Warren was the best tight end in this draft and here’s why: Not only did Warren have 104 catches for 1,233 yards and eight touchdowns this season but Penn State’s receiving corps was so bad that every opponent in the Big Ten knew the ball was going to Warren and they couldn’t stop him.

He can be used inside, outside, in motion, all kinds of ways. He showed some of that in high school first as a Virginia Tech commit before flipping to Penn State but OC Andy Kotelnicki and others in State College did a phenomenal job being creative to get him the ball. In terms of a three-star ranking, though, this was a missed opportunity.

DID WE HIT OR MISS ON HIM? … Miss

Gorney’s lookback: Jalon Walker wanted to be listed at 6-foot-3 and 225 pounds in high school but he measured at 6-foot-1 and 243 at the combine. From a measurement standpoint, and especially coming off the edge, I see why we didn’t make Walker a five-star. But sometimes you learn the lesson to throw out just those numbers and look at production, speed, burst off the edge and the ability to have an endless motor. Walker was all of those things at Georgia.

There are prettier edge rushers in this draft but Atlanta was very wise to pick the local Georgia Bulldogs standout because no one on the defensive side of the ball flies around like Walker.

DID WE HIT OR MISS ON HIM? … Push

Gorney’s lookback: The No. 2 overall player in the 2022 class, we clearly loved Walter Nolen in high school. He was big and mean but right at 300 pounds where he could overpower people up the middle or shoot the gap and get in the backfield.

At just under 6-foot-4 with more than 80-inch arms, Nolen is faster than he even looks and can slip by offensive guards at will or push them back into the quarterback.

First at Texas A&M and then at Ole Miss, Nolen got better and better in college and backed up his ranking.

DID WE HIT OR MISS ON HIM? … Hit

Gorney’s lookback: We didn’t have Shemar Stewart as a five-star until after the Under Armour Game but when we saw him in person, there was just a projection factor there that we took into account – and now we’re super happy we did.

Stewart looks like the dream defensive end at 6-foot-5 and 267 pounds and he has an extraordinary wingspan at nearly 85 inches. The complete package from a physical standpoint is there in Stewart and if draft picks were based solely off looks, he would fight for No. 1 overall.

It’s still befuddling that he never had more than 1.5 sacks in any of his three seasons at Texas A&M though.

DID WE HIT OR MISS ON HIM? … Hit

Gorney’s lookback: Leading up to this draft, a lot of analysts talked about this one being about fit more than anything else. Grey Zabel is a fit pick for the Seattle Seahawks, who have excellent young tackles and needed to shore up the inside of that offensive line.

Zabel was unranked coming out of high school and had no Power Four offers. He could’ve left and gotten some nice NIL deals but he stayed at North Dakota State and dominated there. His measurements aren’t off the charts but his dominance was at that level.

DID WE HIT OR MISS ON HIM? … Miss

Gorney’s lookback: Maybe Roger Goodell doesn’t know how to pronounce his name but Emeka Ebguka has been phenomenal since high school. He’s such a crafty route runner, so smart and has such reliable hands.

It looked like for a long time that the five-star receiver from Steilacoom, Wash., could end up at Oklahoma but then Ohio State got more involved and he picked the Buckeyes.

Over the last three seasons, Egbuka – who is a lot like Jaxon Smith-Njigba – had nearly 200 catches for the Buckeyes and this past season he had more receptions than Jeremiah Smith for the national champs.

DID WE HIT OR MISS ON HIM? … Hit

Gorney’s lookback: On the field, Jahdae Barron is smart, instinctive, a great tackler and is another learning lesson for us as we have to adopt the idea that the NFL wants cornerbacks that are on the shorter side and bulldogs who can attack the ball or the receiver. Barron is just under 5-11 and 194 pounds without particularly long arms but he’s a ballhawk.

His recruitment was a mess, though, as he committed to TCU, backed off that pledge and signed with Baylor but then got his way out of that and picked with Texas months after signing day.

DID WE HIT OR MISS ON HIM? … Miss

Gorney’s lookback: Derrick Harmon was a three-star in high school not only because he was lightly recruited (Harmon wanted to stay home and play at Michigan State and that’s what happened) but also because he was 340 pounds and needed to tighten up his body.

Through a college training program, Harmon weighed 313 at the combine and as long as he can keep the weight off and keep his power then this is a little bit of a steal later in the first round.

Harmon was productive during his time at Michigan State and then transferred to Oregon and had another good season. An argument could be made that other than Mason Graham, Harmon is the best defensive tackle in this class.

DID WE HIT OR MISS ON HIM? … Miss

Gorney’s lookback: At more than 5-11 and 221 pounds, the former four-star running back ran 4.46 at the combine and had two monster seasons at North Carolina. Over the last two seasons, Omarion Hampton had similar stats to Ashton Jeanty on 60 fewer carries and nowhere near the national recognition or hype.

There is a draft purist out there who cringes at two running backs in the first round so far but Hampton is really worth it as a smart runner, tough and elusive enough with great speed to gain yards in the NFL.

Rated as the seventh-best running back in his class, Hampton wasn’t a miss by any means but he should’ve been higher nationally.

DID WE HIT OR MISS ON HIM? … Push

Gorney’s lookback: An early TCU commit, Matthew Golden flipped to Houston and had two very solid seasons there – but probably not first-round level performances – before transferring to Texas where he was showcased on the national stage and did everything possible to shine. He had nearly 1,000 receiving yards this season and then really turned it up during the pre-draft process by clocking a 4.29 40-yard dash at the combine.

He was ranked as a four-star but as the No. 38 wide receiver in the class, that was too low. I still think Luther Burden is the second- or third-best receiver in this draft class and he has first-round ability, too.

DID WE HIT OR MISS ON HIM? … Push

Gorney’s lookback: Donovan Jackson is not going to blow you away physically but he’s so stable, such a technician and was great in high school to earn a five-star ranking and then had a phenomenal career at Ohio State.

This is another learning lesson for us, too, as Jackson is listed at 6-foot-3.5 and 317 (even shorter than Armand Membou earlier in the first round) but his wingspan is exceptional at nearly 84 inches and he has great feet.

DID WE HIT OR MISS ON HIM? … Hit

Gorney’s lookback: I love the Jaxson Dart pick as I had him as the second-best quarterback in this class. He plays with a lot of attitude in his game and that’s what the New York Giants need for a spark in their offense.

There has been some concern about the former high four-star not showing up in big games but he’s got a ton of talent. I love his arm and his stats only got better through his college career, first at USC and then Ole Miss. I also trust Lane Kiffin‘s QB evaluations and he loved and trusted Dart to run the offense.

At Draper (Utah) Corner Canyon he played in a wide-open offense and threw it all over. Things were more balanced at Ole Miss and now he can be a much-needed spark in NY. The fans there should love his fire.

DID WE HIT OR MISS ON HIM? … Push

Gorney’s lookback: James Pearce has all the traits of a first-round defensive end and we liked him a lot in high school as the Charlotte (N.C.) Chambers defensive end was a mid-level four-star but we obviously didn’t like him enough since he was a first-round pick. Pearce is an interesting study because he’s a little lighter and a little faster than Mykel Williams, a surefire first-round defensive end, and he had 17.5 sacks the last two seasons in Knoxville.

There are some maturity/character concerns through the pre-draft process with Pearce but not enough to hold him back from going on Thursday night.

DID WE HIT OR MISS ON HIM? … Push

Gorney’s lookback: There are the ones that hurt the most – guys we loved in high school as the highest level of four-star prospects but we didn’t pull the trigger on a five-star ranking and then they go in the first round. Malaki Starks fits that bill as the Georgia safety was super athletic and rangy with great ball skills in high school. That translated perfectly to his time with the Bulldogs.

When we saw Starks in high school during his season at Jefferson, Ga., we did feel he was mailing it in a little bit and going through the motions but clearly he had everything to be a first-round talent.

DID WE HIT OR MISS ON HIM? … Push

Gorney’s lookback: Tyleik Williams in high school was more of the run stuffer, plugging type of defensive tackle and while we liked him with a four-star ranking, we didn’t see a first-round talent there. At just under 6-foot-3 and 329 pounds, that’s what he will be in the NFL as well. There is nothing wrong with that but did we see supreme athleticism or dominance along the defensive line in high school? I wouldn’t say so.

Congrats to him for developing on a great Ohio State defensive line and coming off first among those guys as JT Tuimoloau, Jack Sawyer and others wait.

DID WE HIT OR MISS ON HIM? … Push