Airline Emissions Soar to Pre-COVID Levels as Europe Fails to Price Their Pollution

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Last Updated on: 29th April 2025, 03:44 am

Emissions from European aviation have almost bounced back to 2019 levels, with flights within Europe even exceeding these, a new T&E study shows. The EU’s carbon market (EU ETS) is currently failing to address the true cost of these emissions, amid signs of climate backtracking from airlines.

Aviation emissions and traffic up, low-cost airlines eat up more of the market

In 2024, the European aviation sector almost fully bounced back to pre-COVID levels [1], reaching 96% of 2019 flight numbers and 98% of emissions. The study also shows that ten airlines were responsible for 40% of all European aviation emissions, the top polluters being Ryanair (16 Mt CO₂), Lufthansa (10 Mt CO₂) and British Airways (9 Mt CO₂).

Over 8.4 million flights departed from European airports last year, generating 187.6 Mt of CO₂. When it comes to intra-European flights, pre-COVID emissions levels have been surpassed, with extra-European flights on a similar trajectory [2].

Krisztina Hencz, Aviation Policy Manager at T&E, said: “Aviation emissions are spiraling out of control. To add insult to injury, the sector continues to dodge the true cost of its pollution, making a mockery of airlines’ pledges to build back greener after COVID. If Europe continues down this path, ‘green’ aviation will remain a figment of people’s imaginations. Next year’s review of EU carbon markets is a chance to rectify a loophole in the current legislation and ensure airlines pay for the true cost of their pollution.”

The study also charts the continuing trend of low-cost carrier expansion in the European aviation industry. This is even the case in the extra-European market, which is usually dominated by flagship carriers like Lufthansa and Air France.

Top polluting routes expose cracks in key aviation climate legislation

The highest-emitting routes departing Europe in 2024 were all intercontinental, with London-New York topping the list. Currently, these emissions are not priced under the EU, Swiss or UK carbon markets, which only apply to flights within Europe [3]. As a result, no airline had to pay for their emissions on the most polluting routes departing from Europe. T&E’s study suggests that as much as 70% of CO₂ emissions from aviation remained unpriced in 2024.

The EU will review its ETS next year, presenting the opportunity to address this fundamental flaw by extending its scope to all departing flights. But the review will come amid signs of climate backtracking from the aviation industry, with CEOs from prominent airlines calling on the EU to weaken its carbon pricing rules.

Extending the ETS could generate billions for the green transition

Alongside climate benefits, an extension of the European carbon markets could generate significant revenues. T&E estimates that an extension of the EU and UK ETS could have generated an additional €7.5 billion euros in 2024 if extra-European emissions were priced [4].

Instead, many airline CEOs are diverting attention by promoting the cheap global aviation offsetting scheme CORSIA, which charges up to 23 times less to pollute than an extension of the EU system [5]. In addition, CORSIA will not help to raise revenues for green technologies like sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) and electric and hydrogen aircraft.

“Relying on CORSIA to cover international emissions from aviation is a false economy,” Krisztina Hencz added. “It is by far the worst option, both environmentally and financially. An extended EU ETS would deliver the greatest positive impact for European economies, alongside having the largest environmental benefits.”

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Europe’s 2024 airline emissions uncovered

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Notes:

[1] Every April, the European Commission releases compiled EU and Swiss emissions trading system (ETS) emissions data. While this dataset is limited to emissions from intra-European flights, T&E incorporates into the analysis all flights departing from EU Member States, Norway, Iceland, Switzerland and the UK, to allow for a more comprehensive picture of aviation-related emissions at European and international level. This is done by combining EU and Swiss ETS data with emissions calculated from OAG flights data.

[2] Zooming on on intra-EU flights only, 2019 emissions levels have been surpassed, while extra-EU flights will reach that level soon (totalling at 91% of 2019 levels in 2024).

[3] The first intra-European flight that is included in the current scope of the EU ETS (Barcelona-London) would land as the 135th on this T&E study

[4] This analysis does not account for the potential decrease in demand that could result from pricing these emissions

[5] In comparison, calculating with an available CORSIA offset price estimate of 16.56€ per ton, the total bill of EU aviation would be 0.5 billion euros based on EU 2024 emissions. 23 times less to be paid for then considering an EU ETS scope extended for all departing flights from Europe. This is notwithstanding the fact that CORSIA revenues wouldn’t stay in Europe but land in the pockets of global offset providers for questionable international projects.

Press release from T&E.

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