India may soon conclude a bilateral trade agreement with the United States, as President Donald Trump ramps up pressure on trading partners by issuing formal tariff notices, according to a report by PTI, citing the think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), on Tuesday.
“Trump’s model isn’t a free trade agreement; it’s a YATRA — Yielding to American Tariff Retaliation Agreement,” GTRI said, highlighting the US President’s aggressive stance on trade negotiations.
The US has extended the deadline for finalising trade deals from July 9 to August 1, giving countries an additional three weeks before new country-specific tariffs take effect.
This latest trade push began on April 2, when Trump announced that approximately 60 nations would face new tariffs unless they negotiated agreements aligned with US interests. Thus far, only the UK and Vietnam have concluded deals, while a temporary truce remains in place with China.
“Trump is now intensifying the pressure. On July 7, he signed formal notices to 14 countries detailing the tariffs they will face from August 1 if agreements are not reached,” said Ajay Srivastava, founder of GTRI.
As per the new tariff list, the US has imposed 25% duties on Japan, South Korea, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, and Tunisia; 30% on South Africa and Bosnia and Herzegovina; 32% on Indonesia; 35% on Bangladesh and Serbia; 36% on Cambodia and Thailand; and 40% on Laos and Myanmar.
“These warnings, described by the White House as ‘final notices,’ present countries with a stark choice: accept the US terms or face significantly higher duties,” Srivastava added.
He cautioned that this tariff escalation could disrupt global trade patterns, raise consumer prices within the US, and create significant challenges for global supply chains.
US imports from China reportedly plunged by 35% in May 2025 compared to the same period the previous year.
“With time running out, India is viewed as a strong contender for announcing a trade deal in the coming days,” Srivastava observed, while urging caution, noting that “New Delhi must tread carefully.”
Given Washington’s recent unilateral trade measures—including specific warnings to BRICS nations—GTRI stressed that India must carefully weigh the long-term strategic consequences of any trade agreement that might heavily favour US interests.
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