Bitcoin gains 12%, mirrors gold as trade war, recession fears mount

Bitcoin gained 12% in two weeks to April 22, showing resilience amid US-China tariffs.
Observers note Bitcoin decoupling from stocks, behaving more like gold (safe haven).
US plans for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve potentially bolster its asset status (Nansen CEO).

Bitcoin has demonstrated notable strength in recent weeks, seemingly shrugging off the escalating trade tensions between the US and China that have unsettled broader financial markets.

This resilience, marked by a significant price increase, is fueling observations that the cryptocurrency is increasingly behaving like a traditional safe-haven asset, akin to gold, rather than mirroring the volatility often seen in tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq.

Divergence amid trade turmoil

In the two weeks leading up to April 22, Bitcoin registered a solid 12% price gain.

This upward movement occurred even as the trade dispute intensified, with the US imposing tariffs reported up to 125% on China, prompting reciprocal measures from Beijing.

Unlike many other assets sensitive to global trade disruptions, Bitcoin appeared relatively insulated, strengthening the argument for its potential role as a store of value during geopolitical uncertainty.

Alex Svanevik, CEO of crypto intelligence firm Nansen, highlighted this trend, noting Bitcoin’s apparent “decoupling” from traditional stock markets.

“Unlike altcoins and major indexes like the S&P 500, Bitcoin has remained relatively stable despite the global trade tensions,” Svanevik observed, according to the analysis.

However, he cautioned that while resilient to specific trade issues, Bitcoin remains susceptible to broader macroeconomic headwinds, particularly the growing fears of a potential economic recession.

Bolstering the safe-haven narrative: US reserve plans

Adding another layer to Bitcoin’s evolving status is the concept of a potential US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

Plans outlined in a presidential executive order suggest the government intends to hold Bitcoin, initially comprising assets seized in criminal investigations.

More significantly, the order details potential future strategies for acquiring more Bitcoin, possibly funded through tariff revenues or by re-evaluating the Treasury’s gold certificates to generate surplus funds, potentially avoiding the need to sell existing gold reserves.

Svanevik believes such “regulatory developments will play a significant role in Bitcoin’s growth as a global asset,” potentially enhancing its legitimacy and appeal.

Recession shadow looms despite crypto gains

While Bitcoin charts its course, the macroeconomic outlook remains clouded. Concerns about a potential US recession are intensifying, acting as a significant counterweight to bullish sentiment in risk assets.

A recent report from JPMorgan notably increased its estimated probability of a US recession occurring in 2025 from 40% to 60%.

The report underscored that existing tariffs, particularly citing the high 145% tariff on China in this context, continue to pose a “significant threat to global growth.”

Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve is anticipated to begin easing monetary policy, likely starting in September 2025 with further rate cuts expected through January 2026.

While monetary easing could stimulate the economy, it might also influence demand dynamics for assets perceived as riskier, potentially including Bitcoin, depending on how investors weigh inflation hedges versus growth prospects.