The Trump administration’s recent tariff measures triggered a geopolitical earthquake that has shaken world markets and set Chinese media ablaze. In a dramatic escalation, the U.S. increased tariffs on China from 54% to 104% last Wednesday, then to 125% later that day, and again to 145% on Thursday. (On Wednesday, amid plunging global stock markets, Trump announced a pause in tariffs on most other countries, except for China. Further exemptions on phones and other electronics manufactured in China have since been announced.) In response, China announced retaliatory tariffs on the U.S., which were set to rise to 125% on Saturday.
This dizzying back-and-forth has generated a surge in online commentary on Chinese social media, some of which have been subject to apparent censorship. On Thursday, CDT Chinese published a list of Weibo hashtags—some taken from state-media or government talking points—that yielded no results at all on Weibo:
- #U.S. imposes 104% tariffs on China, effective today
- #104 tariffs
- #U.S. to impose 104% tariff on Chinese goods
- #145% tariffs
Others displayed results only from “Big V” verified users:
- #Foreign Minstry responds to 104% U.S. tariffs on China
- #We will fight to the end
- #This is China’s attitude
- #Trump tariff measures could put 200,000 Americans out of work
- #Foreign media: U.S. suffering is self-inflicted
- #China doesn’t provoke trouble, but isn’t afraid of it
- #If the American side insists on following this path, China will fight to the end
- #China has the confidence to handle its own affairs
- #America’s so-called reciprocal tariffs are mutually destructive unilateral bullying
- #If the American side wants dialogue it should show some respect
- #America’s unilateral bullying wil eventually backfire
- #Who do U.S. tariff policies hurt?
- #U.S. wages trade war while pleading for eggs
- #Several countries decline to give U.S. eggs
Last Monday, the People’s Daily attempted to calm nerves in China with an article headlined “The Sky Is Not Falling,” stating that Trump’s trade war cannot crush China’s economy. The article was widely criticized as unrealistic and overconfident. Jing Ziku from the WeChat account New New Youth posted a now censored article titled “The Real Danger is Thinking You’re Omnipotent,” which criticized the People’s Daily article for being out of touch. Jing wrote: “Empty and hollow, vapid and naive, this article speaks only of peaceful things, but does not condescend to look down and see the lives of the common people. It refuses to recognize the problem, and not recognizing the problem is the biggest problem of all.” That day, Teacher Li wrote on X, “One blogger said, ‘Today you have to be careful what you say about the stock market, especially if your comments are bearish. I’ve seen a lot of people’s posts being deleted.’”
On Wednesday, the WeChat account 老干体v posted another now-censored article, “104%! The Worst-Case Scenario Has Come to Pass: We’re Taking on America Alone.” The author describes three possible tariff scenarios outlined by Zhao Wei, a professor of economics at Zhejiang University, and argues that the least desirable—number three—appears to be happening: (1) “The U.S. vs. many,” in which China and dozens of countries respond in kind, global trade war breaks out, and the U.S. is outmatched; (2) “The U.S. vs. many, limited edition,” in which China and some E.U. countries respond in kind, resulting in a global trade war; and (3) “China vs. many,” in which other countries choose to compromise with the U.S., leaving China to face America alone.
Reuters reported that Chinese internet censors took down many posts from Chinese companies highlighting the negative impact of Trump’s tariffs, while allowing comments mocking the U.S. and depicting it as a globally irresponsible trading partner. On Wednesday, Vivian Wang at The New York Times provided more detail about Chinese social media censorship related to the trade war:
On Weibo, a popular social media platform, several hashtags that used the number 104 — such as “104 tariff rate” or “America to impose 104 percent tariff on Chinese goods” — returned an error message that said: “Sorry, the content of this topic is not displayed.”
But other hashtags that focused more squarely on mocking the United States, or on touting China’s strengths, were allowed to trend — and in fact were explicitly initiated by state media. “America is fighting a trade war while begging for eggs” was one popular hashtag started by CCTV, China’s state broadcaster. “China does not provoke trouble but is never afraid of it” was another.
[…] It was not clear whether other more negative posts had been censored, or why censors had targeted the hashtags about the 104 statistic in particular. Many individual posts that mentioned the figure were still visible, even as the hashtags themselves were blocked, and they generally expressed confidence about China’s prospects in the trade war.
[…] “I think the CCP may not want to reveal how serious things are,” [said Ja Ian Chong, a professor of political science at the National University of Singapore], referring to the Chinese Communist Party.The party and China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, “may not have a plan on how to address such complications as yet, so are probably trying to control narratives and direct vitriol toward the U.S. and Trump,” he added. [Source]
Censorship of trade war commentary was also imposed offline. He Bin, deputy director of the Public Policy Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), touched off a firestorm when he posted this criticism of the Chinese government’s tariff response to the Public Policy Center’s WeChat Moments: “This is an utterly mistaken ‘countermeasure.’ It’s akin to saying, ‘Well, if you’re going to beat your wife, then I’m going to beat my wife, too.’ Just because the U.S. is shooting itself in the foot by raising tariffs doesn’t mean that we should shoot ourselves in the foot as well. The correct countermeasure is to unilaterally abolish tariffs on imports from all countries.” The consequences of He’s post quickly compounded. As Yuanyue Dang reported for the South China Morning Post, CASS released a statement on Sunday explaining that its Public Policy Center, including the center’s social media accounts and website, were being shut down “amid a new round of ideological reinforcement”:
The now-defunct centre was once headed by economist Zhu Hengpeng, who was also deputy director of the Institute of Economics. He was last seen in public at the end of April 2024.
Sources familiar with the matter said that Zhu had been investigated and removed from his post in May for criticising China’s economic policies in a group discussion on WeChat.
CASS, once home to many liberal academics who were vocal in their criticism of the authorities, is undergoing a major shift towards greater loyalty to the ruling Communist Party.
In August, the academy replaced the economic institute’s leadership, including the director and party secretary, without explanation. A few months earlier, CASS had initiated an academy-wide major study campaign on party discipline.
The campaign, which began in June, required researchers to “take absolute loyalty to the party as the starting and ending point of all their work”. [Source]
Meanwhile, in response to Trump’s tariffs, the Chinese government has dug in its heels. The Ministry of Commerce said on Tuesday, “China will fight to the end.” Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning posted to X, “We won’t back down,” and shared a video of Mao Zedong in 1953, during the Korean War, proclaiming, “No matter how long this war will last, we’ll never yield.” On Wednesday, the Chinese government released a white paper outlining its position on China-U.S. economic and trade relations and arguing that the U.S. tariffs “reveal the isolationist and coercive nature of U.S. conduct.” On Thursday, the Chinese government announced that it would further curb the number of American films allowed to screen in China. Last week, it launched an anti-monopoly probe into American multinational chemical company DuPont, imposed export curbs on certain rare earths and other restrictions on dozens of American companies. A wide range of other Chinese countermeasures are expected to follow.
Opinion leaders on both sides of the Pacific shared their gloom about the inevitability of prolonged tensions. “I do not remember ever being this pessimistic about the trajectory of US-China relations, […] with no obvious off-ramps or even desire to walk things back,” wrote Sinocism’s Bill Bishop on Wednesday. A WeChat article by popular science writer and commentator Xiang Dongliang, titled “U.S.-China Decoupling Has Reached the Point of No Return,” discussed how decoupling and tit-for-tat tariffs might affect the lives and fortunes of ordinary Chinese people. Xiang included a list of practical recommendations, advising Chinese citizens to make a realistic assessment of their career prospects, re-evaluate their investments and purchases, have a back-up plan and enough cash on hand to cover a year of living expenses, to give up any hope of immigrating to the U.S. in the near future, and even to approach studying in the U.S. with caution. Chairman Rabbit, the pseudonym of influential commentator Ren Yi, wrote, “The trade war is not simply an economic friction but ‘a war without smoke,’” adding, “Decoupling is absolutely not China’s goal, but it is a necessary response at this stage.” Deputy Editor-in-Chief of Xinhua Net Liu Hong wrote on Tuesday, “what goes around comes around. The storm that the tariff war will bring to the United States has only just begun.”
Translations by Cindy Carter and Samuel Wade.
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