Dust forecast system helps renewable energy industry manage solar losses

Scientists from the Chinese Academy of Sciences have developed a new forecasting tool called iDust that improves predictions of dust storms, offering significant benefits for solar energy production. The system addresses a critical challenge for renewable energy, particularly in desert regions where dust can severely reduce solar panel efficiency.

The research, led by Dr. Chen Xi at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, was published in the Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems.

“Dust storms not only block sunlight but also accumulate on solar panels, decreasing their power output,” said Chen, explaining his research motif. As China expands solar energy projects in dry and sandy areas, accurate dust forecasting has become essential to minimize disruptions and financial losses.

Existing dust prediction models, such as those from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), have limitations in resolution and speed. iDust overcomes these by integrating dust processes directly into the dynamical core, providing higher-resolution forecasts (10 km instead of 40 km) while using only slightly more computing power than standard weather models. It can generate 10-day dust forecasts in just six hours after observation.

On April 13, 2024, researchers using iDust successfully tracked an extreme dust storm in China’s Bayannur region. Studies show that failing to account for dust can lead to overestimating available solar energy by up to 25%, highlighting the system’s importance for energy planning.

The iDust system is expected to help solar farms and power grid operators better prepare for dust-related disruptions, improving efficiency and reducing costs. As China works toward its carbon neutrality targets, tools like iDust will play a key role in optimizing renewable energy systems.

Future developments aim to expand iDust’s applications globally, supporting sustainable energy efforts worldwide.