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Why Koreans will rebuke Yoon’s insurrection at the ballot box on Tuesday

Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party’s nominee for president, campaigns in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, on May 31, 2025, the final weekend before the June 3 election. (Yonhap)

Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party’s nominee for president, campaigns in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, on May 31, 2025, the final weekend before the June 3 election. (Yonhap)

Ahead of Tuesday’s presidential election, South Korea saw its second-highest early voting turnout on Thursday and Friday, at 34.74%. This was lower than the 36.93% turnout during early voting leading up to the 2022 presidential election. 

The early voting system was introduced during the 2014 local elections, and voter turnout for early voting that year was 11.49%. This bumped up to 20.14% in 2018 and to 20.62% in 2022. Early turnout in the general election for National Assembly lawmakers was 12.19% in 2016, 26.69% in 2020 and 31.28% in 2024. Turnout for early voting in the presidential election was 26.06% in 2017 and 36.93% in 2022. 

There are two major points to consider when it comes to early voting rates. First, early voter turnout has steadily increased since the system’s introduction. Second, early voting turnout is higher in general elections than in local elections, and highest in presidential elections. Presidential elections exhibit higher turnout not only in early voting but also for total voter turnout, which includes early voting and election day. 

Let’s inspect voter turnout in prior presidential elections. The highest voter turnout in South Korean history was in 1987, when direct presidential elections were first introduced under the country’s current Constitution. The June Democratic Struggle’s spirit of “selecting our president with our own hands” directly translated into a high voter turnout. 

Since then, voter turnout for presidential elections has noticeably diminished. It was 81.9% in 1991, 80.7% in 1997, 70.8% in 2002, and 63% in 2007, exhibiting a steady decline. In 2012, however, it jumped to 75.8%, which rose to 77.2% in 2017 and to 77.1% in 2022. 

In 2007, when candidates Lee Myung-bak and Chung Dong-young ran, voter turnout dipped to 63%. This is likely because a large faction of Democratic Party voters stayed home on election day. 

In 2012, when Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in ran, voter turnout jumped up to 75.8%, yet Park still won. This election defied the conventional wisdom that held that high voter turnout almost always benefited the Democratic Party. 

What will the final turnout be in the presidential election? Will it be higher or lower than 77.1% in 2022?

There’s no way to tell yet, but there are signs of a disparity in voter turnout between Democratic Party supporters and People Power Party (PPP) supporters.

When Gallup Korea asked 1,002 Koreans aged 18 and above around the country on May 20-22 whether national politics can be changed through voting, a full 87% of Democratic Party supporters said that they can, compared to just 66% of PPP supporters. (This poll by telephone canvassers had a confidence level of 95% and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 points.)

The poll results suggest that PPP supporters are less enthusiastic about voting.

(More details about all polls mentioned below can be found on the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.)

When early voting turnout is analyzed according to administrative region, turnout is unusually low in the Yeongnam region in the country’s southeast, which has traditionally been a conservative stronghold.

Turnout there is also much lower than in the presidential election three years ago. That decline is seen throughout the area, although it’s most noticeable in Daegu (33.91% → 25.63%) and North Gyeongsang Province (41.02% → 31.52%). In Busan, turnout fell from 34.25% to 30.37%; in Ulsan, from 35.30% to 32.01%; and in South Gyeongsang Province, from 35.91% to 31.71%.

Compare that with the uniform jump in early voting turnout in the Honam region in the southwest, where the Democratic Party typically outperforms. This could be a transient effect of PPP supporters declining to vote early because of conspiracy theories about voter fraud. But if that’s not the case, turnout by PPP supporters is likely to be low on election day as well.

A disparity in voter turnout between different parties will certainly have an impact on the election’s outcome. In fact, that strongly suggests that Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung will be elected president.

Lee Jae-myung has never failed to be the most preferred future political leader and the most supported presidential candidate in all meaningful polls held since ousted President Yoon Suk-yeol’s fateful martial law declaration on Dec. 3, 2024.

A final question is whether PPP candidate Kim Moon-soo can catch up with Lee Jae-myung. In a word, the chances of us seeing a dramatic come-from-behind victory are almost nil.

There are two reasons for that, the first of which is the significance of this presidential election. This election is being held to fill the vacancy left by the Constitutional Court’s removal of Yoon Suk-yeol following his botched martial law declaration. But the PPP has been complicit in Yoon’s self-coup attempt from beginning to end.

When the National Assembly voted to rescind martial law, the majority of PPP lawmakers weren’t at the National Assembly, but at their party headquarters. Essentially, they were opposed to lifting martial law. When the National Assembly voted on a motion of impeachment on Dec. 7, the PPP gathered at a conference hall and kept individual lawmakers from heading to the floor.

Furthermore, only 12 of the 108 members of the PPP voted for Yoon’s impeachment on Dec. 14. PPP lawmakers later gathered in front of the presidential residence in Seoul’s Hannam neighborhood, determined to stop Yoon from being arrested and detained. They also gamely tried to prevent the Constitutional Court from upholding Yoon’s impeachment.

Kim Moon-soo, the conservative People Power Party’s nominee for president, campaigns in Pohang on May 31, 2025. (Yonhap)

Kim Moon-soo, the conservative People Power Party’s nominee for president, campaigns in Pohang on May 31, 2025. (Yonhap)

Given the circumstances, the respectable thing for the PPP to do would have been not to field a candidate for president at all. However, the party still went ahead and selected Kim Moon-soo, the former labor minister, as its nominee for president. 

Kim previously founded the far-right Liberal Unification Party with the controversial pastor Jun Kwang-hoon, and became an overnight conservative celebrity after refusing to apologize for Yoon’s martial law declaration before the National Assembly in December. 

He has no reason or just cause for running for president. “Stopping Lee Jae-myung” could be said to be the sole impetus behind his campaign. It is hard to imagine that Kim himself isn’t embarrassed by this fact. 

If Kim wins this election, South Korea will go down in history as a baffling country in which the party of a president who was impeached and deposed after attempting a self-coup found itself back in power after a snap election. No longer will we be known for the “Miracle on the Han,” but for the “Miracle of the Dec. 3 Insurrection.” Will we see such happenings unfold?

Secondly, we need to register the changing sentiments of the public.

Since 1987, every candidate who was on top in pre-election surveys regarding voter preferences has gone on to win the presidency. The pre-election surveys have uncannily predicted the outcomes of presidential elections. Take the following nail-biter elections and the preceding polls from Gallup Korea. 

In 1997, before the pre-election polling blackout period, the polls showed Kim Dae-jung leading Lee Hoi-chang 33% to 29%, with Rhee In-je at 21%. Lee Hoi-chang almost caught up to Kim Dae-jung during his campaign, narrowing the gap to 2 percentage points, but was unable to overtake Kim Dae-jung’s lead. The results of the actual presidential election saw Kim Dae-jung triumphant with 40.27% of the vote and Lee Hoi-chang with 38.74%.

The final pre-blackout poll leading up to the 2002 election saw Roh Moo-hyun surpassing Lee Hoi-chang, with Roh at 44% support and Lee at 37%. The gap between the two candidates narrowed to as little as 5 points, but Lee Hoi-chang was, once again, unable to best his opponent. Roh Moo-hyun won the 2002 election with 48.91% of the vote while Lee Hoi-chang came in second with 46.58%.

Park Geun-hye led Moon Jae-in in the polls before the 2012 presidential election, with Park at 46% and Moon at 42%. It seemed as if Moon almost had a chance as he closed in on his opponent with a mere 2 points separating them, but he failed to take the lead. Park won the election, taking home 51.55% of the vote while Moon lost with 48.02% of the vote.

The pre-blackout poll findings of 2022 had Yoon Suk-yeol at 39%, Lee Jae-myung at 38% and Ahn Cheol-soo at 12%. That 1-point gap proved insurmountable for Lee, and Yoon won the election with 48.56% of the vote over Lee’s 47.83%.

The regularity of this phenomenon has prompted a common refrain among runners-up in elections: “If the election had been delayed by a week, we would have won.” Such assumptions do not strike me as being productive or very persuasive.

For a miraculous last-minute comeback, a candidate will need to pass through what I call the “political singularity.” While singularity is a term mostly used in physics or mathematics, it can also be used in a political context. Once that singularity is reached, the candidate who clinches victory changes, opening a new chapter of history.

The last polls from Gallup Korea made public on May 23, before the pre-election polling blackout period, showed Lee Jae-myung leading with 45%, Kim Moon-soo at 36% and Lee Jun-seok at 10%. The gap between Lee Jae-myung and Kim Moon-soo is bound to narrow. Why? I’ll tell you.

South Korea is a presidential representative democratic republic. In a presidential system, the ruling power of a government is decided by the presidential election. As election day approaches, voters painstakingly weigh the question of which candidate they can trust with overseeing the country. This is why presidential elections are often seen as an instance of “prospective voting.”

On the other hand, the legislative and local elections that take place during a president’s term in office are usually seen as a mid-term assessment of the administration. That’s why they’re often referred to as “retrospective voting.” 

Moreover, when politics is as polarized as it is now, voters are more likely to cast their vote for the candidate of the party they see as aligning most with their identity. That’s precisely why the same polls that survey support for presidential candidates ask respondents which political party they support. In a Gallup Korea poll made public on May 23, the Democratic Party saw 42% support, while the People Power Party saw 36%.  

Thus, if we take the significance and nature of Tuesday’s election alongside the trends in public opinion, we can conclude that while Kim is gaining on Lee in the polls, Lee will still come out on top. 

With all that said, it would be hasty to assume that Lee has this election in the bag. Politics and elections are inherently capricious, after all. 

In his book “Sapiens,” the Israeli historian Yuval Harari writes that history is a “level two” chaotic system. “Chaotic systems come in two shapes. Level one chaos is chaos that does not react to predictions about it. The weather, for example, is a level one chaotic system,” he writes. “Level two chaos is chaos that reacts to predictions about it, and therefore can never be predicted accurately.”

This is analogous to what’s known as the “observer effect” in quantum physics, which states that the simple fact of observing or measuring a quantum system inevitably alters the status of the system being observed. 

I’d argue that politics and elections are no different. For instance, some of you reading this article may close the browser tab and, satisfied that Lee is a shoo-in for president, choose to stay home on Tuesday. Conversely, some of you may be even further motivated to go to the ballot box to help Kim get even a single vote closer to closing the gap with Lee. 

In either instance, my article predicting who will win the election has some sort of ramifications for Tuesday’s outcome. That’s just the nature of politics and elections. With that said, how should we act? What do you think, dear reader? 

By Seong Han-yong, senior political writer

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]

#Koreans #rebuke #Yoons #insurrection #ballot #box #Tuesday

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