The defining feature of the political landscape this parliament — the point that continues to shape commentary on Keir Starmer’s woes in government — is Labour’s electoral precarity.
Clichés have long since entered the Westminster lexicon that reckon with Starmer’s brittle supremacy. Writing for The Times ahead of polling day in July last year, Focaldata’s James Kanagasooriam remarked on the potential for a “political sandcastle” — a construction that is “impressive on the outside, but liable to be swept away at a moment’s notice”. It was a prescient observation.
As Starmer settled into Downing Street, supported by a 174-seat commons majority, the metaphors proliferated. Hopeful critics still lampoon Labour’s victory as a “loveless landscape” — noting the party won just 33.7 per cent of the vote. Others dismiss Starmer’s triumph as “thin” and “shallow”, not “wide” or “deep”.
Labour insiders have themselves subscribed to variations of this perspective. The pro-leadership Labour Together group published a report last year noting the transactional nature of Starmer’s victory.
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The report noted: “In the past, winning 411 seats was the kind of victory from which a government might confidently expect 10 years in power. This Labour government has been cautiously hired, on a trial basis, liable to prompt dismissal if it deviates even slightly from its focus on voters’ priorities”.
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Labour Together concluded that the government must make good on its one-word election slogan: “Change”. In this way, processes have been set in motion, and the worthy work of government continues alongside the usual strategising. But danger abounds in all manner of political forms. The precarity of Starmer’s electoral tyranny has, in short, been exposed by its unravelling.
A recent More in Common survey of 16,000 voters, published over the Easter Bank holiday weekend, points to a three-way tie between the Labour, Reform UK and Conservative parties (on 24 per cent). Surveys conducted years away from a general election are unlikely to represent anything close to its result. But the findings give shape to the fragmentation British politics has undergone in recent years and months.
The local elections on 1 May will provide a clearer picture.
Keir Starmer’s first major interaction with voters as prime minister is set to be spoiled by Reform UK. Nigel Farage’s party has the most to gain from the council and mayoral elections. The Conservatives, which enjoyed a strong performance when these contests were last fought in 2021, have by far the most to lose.
The narrative of the local elections is likely to find its meaning in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election — where the national three-way tie has been distilled into a more manageable two-horse run-off: Reform versus Labour.
It is this battle that Labour has spent recent months preparing for, as it has honed its Farage-facing literature and anti-Reform attack lines. By-elections come with caveats, of course. Turnout is usually more pronounced among opponents of the government; and swing voters are more likely to bruise the government (or stay home) when confronted with a relatively low-stakes contest. Such fundamentals suggest Reform is well-placed to secure the first by-election of this parliament.
The Runcorn result will be seized upon in subsequent commentary, in part, because of its soothing simplicity. The stakes are set. A victory for Reform will underscore Farage’s claim to electoral momentum and deepen unease in Labour ranks. A victory for Starmer’s party would inspire an inverse reaction of some kind.
But in either eventuality: do not expect Labour’s political strategy to change.
No 10 has sought to stem the flow of support to Reform this parliament by challenging the party on its favourite issues, including and especially immigration. Critics contend that this approach risks expanding the political space that only someone like Farage can dominate. But No 10 still tests the limits of what is ideologically acceptable in Labour as it engages directly with Reform’s target voters.
Similarly, opponents of Starmer’s political strategy posit that his focus on Labour’s right flank has diminished its progressive appeal. The Scottish National Party (SNP), the Liberal Democrats and the Greens have all made gains since the general election, the former from a low-water mark — and the latter two from already strong positions. These parties, true to their ideological identities, have proven the most strident critics of Reform-style populism this parliament, and its counterpart across the Atlantic.
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The ostensible risk for Starmer is that he gives progressive voters another reason to exit Labour’s fragile electoral coalition — while failing to thwart, or even exacerbating, Reform’s rise.
But Labour, its recent interventions suggest, reads the runes rather differently. The party leadership is operating under the strategic calculation that progressive-minded individuals will vote to lock Farage out of power when the time comes.
Just as Labour positioned itself as the default non-Tory option in 2024, it stands ready to rebrand as the principal anti-Farage vehicle over the coming years. And so Labour’s latest electoral formula, based on a new totemic dividing line, is born — and with it a question. Can a “Keep Reform Out” message prove similarly motivating?
In other words: will fear of Farage save Starmer?
Labour is talking up Reform’s fear factor. Party attack ads have taken aim at Farage’s policies on the NHS and its confused stance on geopolitical developments, particularly as they relate to Ukraine.
In this regard then, defeat in Runcorn — like the 2021 Hartlepool by-election (the loss of which accelerated Labour’s break with Corbynism) — would see Starmer double down. The election of another Reform MP could begin the process by which voters acquiesce to Labour’s framing. Farage’s constituency-by-constituency leads would be squeezed by tactical-minded progressives.
There is precedent for electoral success with such a strategy. Voters were urged to back the Conservatives in 2015 to deny the SNP influence at Westminster. In a likely sign of things to come, Scottish Labour posted to X just this afternoon: “A vote for Nigel Farage’s Reform Party is a vote for The SNP.”
Farage’s jacket pocket, emblazoned across Labour’s campaign material, could well be brimming with further third party options come election day in 2029.
Labour’s recent eye-catching graphic that merged the faces of Kemi Badenochand Farage can be considered along these lines too. That messaging is aimed at historically Conservative voters who feel uneasy about Farage’s politics. It is a call to arms for those who abhor Faragism to join (or remain in) the resistance, even if they stand unconvinced by Starmer, the “insurgent” rebel leader.
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This approach could restore Labour’s implicit electoral alliance with the Lib Dems, as both parties talk up the threat posed by a Reform-Conservative pact — in urban and rural settings respectively.
A “Stop Farage” narrative would also compete with the general anti-incumbent rhetoric adopted by Reform and other opposition parties. If Labour cannot rely on steamrollering progress towards its one-word “change” slogan, this strategy — at least — gives Starmer a coherent message.
That is how Starmer plans to face both directions this parliament. First, he will continue to engage with voters tempted by Reform with hardline stances on issues like immigration. Oppositely and equally, he will signal to progressives concerned by the march of Reform and populism internationally.
By 2029, Farage and Reform risk becoming victims of their own sudden success. But Labour’s ostensible strategy is nonetheless based on a series of assumptions about UK voter behaviour, across several segments of the electorate, that are yet to be tested at the ballot box. And in a best-case scenario, this strategy would produce another “loveless” result. How long can a political party sustain itself based purely on negative messaging and association?
The spectre of Farage will loom large over the next election. In a multi-polar political landscape defined by uncertainty, that much is clear. The question now is whether Starmer can capitalise on a prevalent anti-Reform feeling in the same way anti-Tory sentiment dominated in 2024.
That, along with so much else, is yet to be decided.
Lunchtime briefing
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Lunchtime soundbite
‘I think it reflects the high esteem in which he was held, not just by millions and millions of Catholics, but by many others, across the world, myself included’
— Keir Starmer will attend the funeral of Pope Francis, following his death at the age of 88 yesterday. No 10 confirmed the prime minister has received an invite and will attend the ceremony, which will take place at the Vatican on Saturday.
Speaking today, Starmer said the last 24 hours has seen “an outpouring of grief and love”.
Now try this…
‘Vatican power struggle: will an “anti-Francis” pope emerge from conclave?’
Via the Guardian.
‘Free school breakfast clubs will give parents “breathing space”, says Starmer’
ITV News reports.
‘Badenoch says Tories braced for “very difficult” set of local election results’
The Independent reports.
On this day in 2022:
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#Stop #Farage #strategy #save #Labour #Keir #Starmer
