The outcomes of the local elections will confirm five-party politics as the “new norm”, a top polling expert has predicted.
Leading psephologist professor Sir John Curtice referred to the local elections as a contest in which five political parties are going to be “serious competitors”.
Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme on Monday morning, Sir John pointed to the wider polling picture.
He said: “We’ve got Reform at 25 in the national opinion polls, Labour at 24, the Conservative 22.
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“Yes, the Liberal Democrats are at 14, and the Greens are at 9. They are weaker, but they usually do better in local elections than they do in the national election. So we’re talking about five serious competitors.”
This landscape, Curtice suggested, would result in most of the contested councils ending up under no overall control.
The professor was then asked if five-party politics is now the “new norm”.
He replied: “It certainly looks like our new norm at the moment.
“One of the things that a lot of people missed at the general election is that it was the first general election in the UK’s history in which five political parties fought virtually everywhere.
He added: “The Liberal Democrats have long had a [national] party organisation, along with Labour and the Conservatives. The Greens have developed one, and they are now represented everywhere.
“Reform were largely putting up paper candidates in the election. But one of the challenges they set themselves after the election was to start to create local party organisation.
“And what do we already know about these local elections — they’re actually fighting slightly more seats than any other party. They have found 1,640 candidates to fight virtually all the seats, and that is an indication of how Reform are also turning themselves into a permanent party organisation.”
Josh Self is Editor of Politics.co.uk, follow him on Bluesky here.
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