Mark Carney, Liberals secure fourth-term in Trump-dominated election

He made Trump a centrepiece of his campaign, and was aided by the president regularly repeating his desire to make Canada the 51st US state throughout the election. “The Americans want to break us so they can own us,” Carney said. “Those aren’t just words. That’s what’s at risk.”

On polling day, Trump continued his efforts with a facetious post suggesting he was on the ballot and calling on Canadians to elect the man who would incorporate Canada into the US. “It makes no sense unless Canada is a State!” Trump wrote.

Poilievre, who has led the official opposition since 2022 and was criticised for not taking a firmer stance against Trump, responded with a post of his own.

“President Trump, stay out of our election. The only people who will decide the future of Canada are Canadians at the ballot box,” Poilievre posted. “Canada will always be proud, sovereign and independent and we will NEVER be the 51st state.”

As votes were counted on Monday night, it became clear Poilievre’s Conservatives had performed well relative to previous elections, but a collapse in support for minor parties – especially the progressive New Democratic Party – was helping the Liberals hold on to power.

Shortly before midnight local time, the Liberals’ share of the national vote stood at 42.6 per cent, while the Conservatives were on 41.7 per cent. The NDP was on track to lose half its 24 seats, including that of leader Jagmeet Singh.

Trump’s truculence has infuriated many Canadians, leading many to cancel American vacations, refuse to buy American goods and possibly even vote early. A record 7.3 million Canadians cast ballots before election day.

The US president’s attacks also put Poilievre and the opposition Conservative Party on the defensive and led to a surge in nationalism that helped the Liberals flip the election narrative.

Election day came as the country grappled with the fallout from a deadly weekend attack at a Vancouver street fair that led to the suspension of campaigning for several hours. Police ruled out terrorism and said the suspect was a local man with a history of mental health issues.

Canada is a constitutional monarchy, like Australia, with King Charles III serving as ceremonial head of state. The country’s electoral system is also modelled after the British system.

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The House of Commons has been expanded this election to 343 federal electoral districts, also known as a constituency or a riding. The member is elected on a “first-past-the-post” system, not preferential voting.

The leader of the party that wins a majority of seats in the House of Commons will form a new government and serve as prime minister. If no party wins a majority, a party – usually the one with the most seats – can form a minority government but must rely on support from some opposition members. In rare cases, two or more parties might reach a formal agreement to form a coalition government together.

Canada’s parliament has an upper chamber called the Senate, but those members are appointed and do not play a role in determining the prime minister.

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What next?

Canada has been dealing with a cost-of-living crisis for some time. Trump’s threat to impose sweeping tariffs and his desire to get North American automakers to move Canada’s production south could severely damage the Canadian economy.

Both Carney and Poilievre said that if elected, they would accelerate renegotiations of a free trade deal between Canada and the US to end the uncertainty hurting both of their economies.

Carney has notable experience navigating economic crises after running Canada’s central bank and later becoming the first non-UK citizen to run the Bank of England.

With AP

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