Satellite data has revealed that sea surface temperatures are rising at an increasingly rapid pace, with warming rates now 4.5 times faster than observed in the late 1980s, according to a newly published study.
The research, published in Environmental Research Letters, found that between 1985 and 1989, sea surface temperatures rose by a modest 0.06°C per decade. By comparison, the period from 2019 to 2023 showed a dramatic acceleration to 0.27°C per decade.
This accelerating pattern helps explain why 2023 saw unprecedented ocean temperatures that shattered previous records. The extreme warmth continued for 450 consecutive days, far exceeding what scientists would expect based solely on climate patterns like El Niño.
“This energy imbalance drives climate change,” explained Chris Merchant from Reading University, the study’s lead author. “Given the accelerations in ocean warming and evolving climate dynamics, we need ongoing monitoring and data improvements to ensure our climate models can accurately reflect future temperature increases.”
The research team analyzed data collected over four decades from 20 satellites, including those from the European Space Agency’s Climate Change Initiative. While normal climate variability causes fluctuations in ocean temperatures, the underlying warming trend is clearly accelerating.
The findings contradict a common assumption that global warming progresses at a steady, linear rate. Instead, the researchers found that warming is speeding up in tandem with the accumulation of heat energy in the Earth system.
When scientists compared the recent El Niño event of 2023-2024 with the previous major event in 2015-2016, they discovered that approximately 44% of the temperature difference couldn’t be explained without accounting for this acceleration effect.
“Our study clearly identifies the increasing accumulation of planetary energy as the dominant driver of long-term sea surface warming, while short-term variations from El Niño, volcanic activity and solar changes add variability but do not alter the overall accelerating trend,” said Owen Embury, co-author and scientific leader of the ESA-CCI sea-surface temperature project.
The study points to rising greenhouse gas levels as the primary cause of this acceleration, alongside possible reductions in atmospheric aerosols that previously had a cooling effect.
Using these observations to project future warming, the researchers concluded that sea surface temperatures are likely to rise faster in coming decades than previous estimates suggested. In their moderate scenario, the team projected the ocean surface could warm by 0.78°C between 2025 and 2045 – exceeding the total warming observed over the past four decades.
Even under their most optimistic scenario, which assumes successful implementation of mitigation efforts, warming would still be twice as rapid as a linear extrapolation of past trends would predict.
The research carries stark implications for climate policy. As the study concludes, “The rate of global warming over recent decades is a poor guide to the faster change that is likely over the decades to come, underscoring the urgency of deep reductions in fossil-fuel burning.”
This accelerating pattern of ocean warming could intensify extreme weather events, disrupt marine ecosystems, and accelerate sea level rise in the coming years, making continued monitoring and model refinement essential for accurate climate projections.
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