𝗔𝗻𝗱 𝗱𝗼𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿?
A🧡481-word💛under💚3-minute💙read
After Trump’s victory the consensus was that given they mostly benefited Red States, the tax credits were relatively safe. And two weeks ago, 21 House Republicans requested that changes to the IRA credits be done in a “targeted and pragmatic fashion.”
This “please don’t screw us” plea was undoubtedly made with the knowledge that asking for no changes was a non-starter.
This week 100 or so clean energy stakeholders packed their bags for Washington to make a last ditched effort to save the credits.
It’s an uphill battle and here’s why:
Last November I wrote: If Republicans gain control of Congress, the 2017 Trump tax cuts will become permanent, and additional cuts will be considered. The IRA tax credits would be a convenient budget offset.
That’s precisely the situation. The Republican’s narrow majority means to avoid the 60-vote or filibuster route requires taking the path of reconciliation requiring only a simple majority. The problem is that with reconciliation spending or revenues can only be modified, not increased.
Can you say offsets?
Forget DOGE. That won’t come close to covering the tax cuts. The Tax Foundation and the Penn Wharton Budget Model estimate that just the extensions will cost between $3.7 and $4.5 trillion through 2034. Add the no tax on tips and Social Security and the cost could approach $6.8 trillion.
More bad news: Repealing all the IRA credits is estimated to only save around $1 trillion.
Based on recent behavior, the choice between maintaining the tax credits – which Trump dislikes – and giving “The Don” what he wants, is no choice at all.
But you say – Republicans would be hurt most.
And your point would be?
Trump’s Keystone Cops approach to tariffs proves that he cares little about any short-term economic impact. He also doesn’t care about the Republican Party. What he cares about is himself, and he’s arrogant enough to believe that his blessing is sufficient to assure victory.
Brace for a major tax credit haircut.
At a minimum, many, if not all of the bonus credits will be eliminated. The environmental justice-related credits are toast. To soften the political blowback, one option short of total repeal is to cut the duration of the credits.
The hydrogen and EVs credits will be interesting.
The EV credit alone is estimated to cost $295 billion, but Elon is a wild card. With Tesla reeling, he may rethink his “I don’t care nix them” attitude.
My guess is that despite the fossil fuel industry benefiting from the hydrogen credits, they get chopped. Oil and gas will be thrown many other bones. As for the EV credit, at a minimum it will be reduced, but a full repeal would not surprise me.
And none of it matters. On Monday I’ll explain why.
#inflationreductionact #oilandgas #oilandgasindustry
#Repealing #IRA #Tax #Credits #Wont #Part
