Study estimates 62 per cent risk of triggering climate tipping points under continued warming

A new study has estimated a 62 per cent risk of triggering climate ‘tipping points’ based on current policies and the resulting warming. Collapse of ice sheets and death of coral reefs are some of the tipping points, or points of no return, which scientists have predicted to occur under continued global warming. Effects of tipping points are said to be abrupt and irreversible for both societies and ecosystems.

In this study, researchers from the universities of Exeter, UK, and Hamburg, Germany, analysed the risk of such tipping points under low-, medium- and high-emissions scenarios.

“Our most conservative estimate of triggering probabilities averaged over all tipping points is 62 per cent under (continued emissions before starting to fall mid-century),” the authors wrote in the study published in the journal Earth System Dynamics.
Tipping points within the Amazon rainforest in South America were estimated to have a 53 per cent chance of occurring.

“Climate tipping points could have devastating consequences for humanity. It is clear that we are currently on a dangerous trajectory — with tipping points likely to be triggered unless we change course rapidly,” author Tim Lenton, professor at the University of Exeter, said.

However, in a scenario where emissions were tackled, the risk of triggering tipping points was found to be significantly reduced to 37 per cent. “The good news from our study is that the power to prevent climate tipping points is still in our hands,” lead author Jakob Deutloff, a researcher at the University of Hamburg, said. “By moving towards a more sustainable future with lower emissions, the risk of triggering these tipping points is significantly reduced,” Deutloff said.

Stressing on the urgency of global climate action, the authors wrote, “If the risk of triggering (tipping points) is to be reduced, rapid action is needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, since climate tipping points are already close, and it will be decided within the coming decades if they will be crossed or not.”