Summer stocking pushes India’s thermal coal imports to 10-month high in March

India’s thermal coal imports surge in preparation for summer peak demand, hitting a 10-month high in March 2025.
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India’s thermal coal imports rose to a 10-month high in March 2025 with the power sector stocking up supplies for the blistering summer season ahead with peak electricity demand (day) already hitting more than 230 gigawatts (GW).

According to global real-time data and analytics provider Kpler, India’s purchases of foreign thermal coal, usually procured by the power sector, rose by 10 per cent month-over-month to 14.16 million tonnes (mt) provisionally. However, the imports declined by more than 2 per cent on an annual basis.

The higher import requirement also reflects on the government’s direction to imported coal based (ICB) power plants to run capacities at optimum levels through the end of this month.

The mandate will be again extended to at least cover the remaining two months of the peak summer power demand season—May and June. This is likely to drive up coal imports going ahead.

Summer Rush

Alexis Ellender, Senior Lead Dry Bulks Insight at Kpler, told businessline, “Indian coal imports (thermal and metallurgical) climbed to an eight-month high of 20.09 mt in March as preparation for the hot weather season and improved supply availability supported lifted trade. We expect further strong imports in the coming months.”

At 14.16 mt, thermal coal imports hit a 10-month high in March as volumes from Indonesia surged; however, they were still down by 0.31 mt y-o-y . This decline came despite an extension to a government import mandate to boost coal-fired generation, he added.

India goes into the hot season well prepared with coal stocks at power plants 14 per cent higher y-o-y and 60 per cent higher than in 2023, he pointed out.

“High stockpiles are now acting as a brake on demand growth in imported and thermal coal. Nevertheless, we expect shipments to remain firm in April before climbing in May as hot weather spurs demand,” Ellender explained.

As on March 31, thermal power plants had 58 mt of coal stocks, compared with 51 mt last year. Inventory improved to 20 days as on March 31, compared with 18 days in March 2024 and 19 days in February 2025, said Crisil Intelligence.

India’s coal production and despatch surpassed one billion tonnes (bt) in FY25. Production rose by 4.99 per cent y-o-y to 1,047.57 mt, provisionally. Coal dispatch rose by 5.34 per cent Y-o-Y to 1,024.99 MT.

Consequently, imports fell by 8.4 per cent y-o-y to 183.42 mt in 9M FY25, saving $5.43 billion, or roughly ₹42,315.7 crore, in foreign exchange.

Rising power demand

With the weatherman projecting a 50 per cent chance of above-normal temperatures during April-June 2025, India’s power demand is expected to grow at 6.5-7.5 per cent y-o-y in Q1 FY26, anticipates Crisil Intelligence.

Power demand surged in March 2025 as the mercury climbed and demand from industrial and commercial consumers soared. Higher cooling requirements pushed peak power demand to 235 GW, an addition of 14 GW from the previous fiscal, it said.

As a result, power demand rose to 6.9 per cent on year, around 50 per cent higher than the full-year (FY25) average of 4.3 per cent. In the western region, power demand grew around 10 per cent on year as several regions in Gujarat witnessed six days of heatwave, it added.