Professionals across insurance, pensions and research share cautious optimism about life expectancy improvements in Club Vita’s survey.
As advances in medicine and technology continue to extend both lifespan and healthspan, questions about the societal, financial and ethical implications of longer lives become increasingly pertinent. In response to this, Club Vita – a longevity data analytics firm – launched a Risk of Living Longer webinar series in 2024, accompanied by a survey intended to capture professional sentiment on longevity outcomes. The results, now published, offer a nuanced portrait of expectations from a cross-section of experts across insurance, pensions, research and finance.
Longevity.Technology: The survey garnered responses from 66 professionals, with a majority (66%) identifying as actuaries and significant representation from the UK, US and Canada. Participants were asked to evaluate possible trajectories in human longevity over the coming decades, as well as the barriers and drivers that may shape those trajectories [1].
The findings reflect both cautious optimism and clear divergences in perspective depending on professional background and sector. While most respondents anticipate incremental gains in life expectancy over the coming decades, views diverge significantly when it comes to the pace and scale of those improvements. Insurance professionals, whose roles are tightly bound to risk management, tended to express more conservative expectations and skepticism toward longevity breakthroughs – particularly around radical lifespan extension. In contrast, pension professionals were somewhat more open to disruptive change, perhaps reflecting a future-oriented outlook centered on evolving retirement needs. Across both groups, however, there was consensus that meaningful progress is more likely to come from practical advancements in diagnostics and disease treatment than from speculative or experimental approaches, highlighting a shared preference for grounded, evidence-driven optimism.
Modest projections for near-term life expectancy gains
When asked to predict changes in the life expectancy of a 60-year-old by the year 2044, the majority of respondents expected relatively modest improvements. Specifically, 88% anticipated an increase of no more than five years – figures that are broadly aligned with projections from standard actuarial models. However, within this consensus, differences emerged: 58% of insurance professionals believed the increase would be less than two years, compared with 69% of pension professionals who expected a 2–5 year gain.
By 2074, expectations were only marginally more optimistic. Some 78% forecasted an improvement of between two and ten years, with 87% of actuaries falling within this range. Just 7 respondents envisioned gains beyond ten years, highlighting the limited expectation for more dramatic improvements. Notably, a small number (only two) suggested life expectancy might not rise at all but instead decline, introducing a note of skepticism about the potential for long-term progress [1].
Erik Pickett, Actuary and Chief Content Officer at Club Vita, told Longevity.Technology that the survey provides a fascinating insight into the perspectives of longevity stakeholders regarding future increases in life expectancy.
“I was particularly intrigued by the fact that the majority of our respondents – many of whom were actuaries – predicted higher increases in life expectancy at age 60 over the next 20 years than captured in the commonly used actuarial models in the US, UK and Canada,” he said.
“Perhaps our respondents believe the actuarial models are underestimating the pace of life expectancy gains, or perhaps they are not aware of the improvements reflected in those models.”
The responses were further contextualized by comparisons with standard longevity improvement models, such as the Society of Actuaries’ MP-2021 scale in the US, the UK’s CMI-2023 model and the Canadian Institute of Actuaries’ CaMI-2024. Under these, a 60-year-old in 2024 is projected to gain approximately 1.5 to 2 years of life by 2044, and around 3.5 to 4.5 years by 2074, depending on country and gender.
Limited belief in radical lifespan extension
In terms of the human lifespan ceiling, professional views were similarly conservative. When asked whether there is a 50% chance that maximum human lifespan could exceed 130 years, just over a quarter (28%) responded “Never.” Actuaries were more inclined toward skepticism than non-actuaries; 38% of insurance professionals chose the “Never” option, while pension professionals were more divided, with 31% selecting “Eventually.”
“I’m always interested in new additions to the maximum lifespan debate,” Pickett explained. “In our survey, just over half of the respondents predicted that the maximum human lifespan would exceed 130 within the next 100 years, while just under half thought it would take longer than 100 years, or that we would never get there. So, the debate continues!”
Explanations for this skepticism detailed in the survey range from concerns over environmental and global risks – such as climate change and pollution – to beliefs in biological limits and diminishing returns from existing interventions. One respondent noted that longevity improvements have thus far been driven primarily by reductions in mortality at younger ages, rather than meaningful extension of old age.
Diagnostics and disease treatment seen as key enablers
Despite the caution around extreme longevity, there was broad agreement on where future gains in life expectancy are most likely to arise; 74% of respondents identified earlier diagnosis and treatment of disease as the most promising area of research [1]. Other commonly cited drivers included genetic and epigenetic therapies, repurposed drugs and regenerative approaches such as cellular reprogramming.
Importantly, these priorities were consistent across actuaries and non-actuaries alike, as well as across industry segments. Technologies that facilitate earlier detection of disease and personalized intervention – rather than radical biological alteration – were considered more viable in the near term.
Pension professionals in particular expressed optimism around regenerative and genetic medicine, while insurance professionals were more likely to question whether any aspect of current longevity research merited optimism. While only around 9% of respondents expressed no optimism about any aspect of longevity research, this view was exclusive to actuaries within the insurance profession; no pension actuaries reported such pessimism. This divergence reflects a broader pattern in the survey: those tasked with managing risk appear to view change as incremental, while those focused on retirement provision may be more open to the possibility of disruption.
Societal and structural barriers temper expectations
In examining reasons for pessimism, the most frequently cited challenge was societal and behavioral inertia. 24% of respondents pointed to factors such as poor diets, sedentary lifestyles and an unwillingness to change habits as major obstacles to increasing longevity.
Alongside these, concerns around funding and resources were prominent; 39% of participants considered resource allocation to be the most significant barrier facing longevity research today. This was particularly common among insurance professionals, 44% of whom saw funding as the primary hurdle [1].
Other impediments mentioned included institutional inertia, global risks such as war and climate disruption and misalignment between commercial interests and scientific goals.
The Club Vita Risk of Living Longer survey offers a valuable and interesting snapshot of professional attitudes toward longevity; while optimism exists around diagnostics, data and targeted therapies, few foresee transformative breakthroughs in longevity within the next 20 years. To view the complete report and explore the full set of data and analysis, readers can access the publication directly here.
[1] https://www.clubvita.net/assets/images/general/Risk-of-Living-Longer-Survey-Paper.pdf
Photograph of Erik Pickett courtesy of Club Vita
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