Predicting the 2025 MLB season: Playoffs, Awards

There is no legitimate reason to play the season because the Los Angeles Dodgers are far and away the best team and 100% guaranteed to win it all, so I don’t know what the point of anything is, really. Cancel everything, even the football season.

But just in case, let’s generate some thought. And yes, these are guesses, and a legitimate attempt to avoid chalk selections.

Dodgers-x
Padres-w
Giants-w
Diamondbacks
Rockies

Injuries could keep this division interesting, but there’s quality from 1-4 and not much difference in talent from 2-4.

Cubs-x
Brewers
Pirates
Cardinals
Reds

This is the biggest piece of guesswork on this page. Seventeen games separated the last-place Pirates from the division champion Brewers, but there were just seven games between the second-place Cubs and the bottom of the division.

Phillies-x
Braves-w
Mets
Nationals
Marlins

I don’t like the Mets’ rotation much, but there is depth there, and the addition of a second MVP candidate to the lineup could push them over the top. For me, the Mets and Braves are interchangeable here, but it would take key injuries for the Phillies to fall from the top spot.

Astros-x
Mariners-w
Rangers
Athletics
Angels

This division got better over the winter, but it didn’t happen much with the top three rosters. Those three are fungible here, but considering the growth of the A’s and to a lesser extent the Angels, the division winner is likely to again struggle to win 90 games.

Guardians-x
Twins-w
Tigers
Royals
White Sox

You could flip-flop the top four teams and it would surprise few, certainly not me. I buy the 26-and-40-man roster of the Tigers, Twins, and Guardians over the Royals — partly because I’m not convinced Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha will again combine for 8.0 fWAR and more than 370 innings — but this will likely come down to the team that suffered the least impact injuries.

Orioles-x
Red Sox-w
Yankees
Blue Jays
Rays

The bottom three teams in this division all have enough talent to win the division, but the Rays’ injury situation is worrisome. Boston’s hold on the No. 2 spot here is thin, but I like their offensive reinforcements (Roman Anthony, Kristian Robinson, et al), better than the Yankees’ options to cover for the absence of Gerrit Cole.

Padres d. Braves
Cubs d. Giants

Twins d. Mariners
Red Sox d. Astros

Dodgers d. Cubs
Phillies d. Padres

Twins d. Orioles
Guardians d. Red Sox

NL
Phillies d. Dodgers

Twins d. Guardians

Phillies. d. Twins

AVG: Trea Turner, SS —PHI
OBP: Juan Soto, OF — NYM
HR: Shohei Ohtani, DH — LAD
SB: Elly De La Cruz, SS — CIN
wRC+: Ohtani
fWAR: Ohtani
IP: Logan Webb, RHP — SF
SO: Paul Skenes, RHP — PIT
SfWAR: Sale
RfWAR: Ryan Walker, RHP — SF
MVP: Ohtani
CY: Sale
ROY: Roki Sasaski, RHP — LAD

There’s more chalk here than I want, but if Ohtani is healthy and both hits and pitches it’s difficult to see a more valuable impact in baseball. Skenes is a popular Cy Young pick, so it felt a little less chalky to go with Sale repeating.

AVG: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B — TOR
OBP: Aaron Judge, OF — NYY
HR: Judge
SB: Jazz Chisholm, 3B — NYY
wRC+: Judge
fWAR: Bobby Witt Jr., SS — KC
IP: Logan Gilbert, RHP — SEA
SO: Tarik Skubal, LHP — DET
SfWAR: Skubal
RfWAR: Emmanuel Clase, RHP — CLE
MVP: Gunnar Henderson, SS — BAL
CY: Skubal
ROY: Jacob Wilson, SS — ATH