First he took the US on a collision course with China. Then he came for the rest of the world.
He crashed into the financial markets and now Donald Trump has been gently tapping on the brakes all week.
The world’s economic policymakers have been on quite the journey over the past few months.
Many of them will have felt a little queasy as they got off the plane in Washington DC for the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) annual spring meetings.
This was their opportunity to talk. To strategise, strengthen alliances and figure out their next move.
Rachel Reeves was in the mix. While all the focus has been on a US-UK trade deal – and she is due to meet her US counterpart on Friday – the chancellor was also here to meet her G7 and G20 allies.
Countries across the world are eager for Mr Trump to reduce his tariffs but they are also looking to each other, reflecting on how the world might look in the future and whether the US is a reliable long-term partner.
That much was obvious from a conversation with Paschal Donohoe, Ireland’s finance minister and president of the Eurogroup.
He told Sky News that Ireland, a highly US-orientated economy, was diversifying.
That being said, he was “more optimistic than some” that a high level of trade integration would prevail well into the future.
“What I think is very possible is the structure of that globalisation could begin to change,” he said.
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‘We’re confident,’ says Chancellor Reeves
That changing structure might include a rejection of China’s decades-long model of export-led growth.
Since joining the World Trade Organisation in 2001, China has been pumping out cheap goods into the world economy, making far more than it consumes at home.
Poor countries across the world have taken a similar approach to development but the US Treasury secretary said on the sidelines of the IMF on Wednesday that it was “absurd” for multilateral institutions to continue treating China like a developing economy.
He called for a “rebalancing”.
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There is a recognition among world leaders that some of Mr Trump’s grievances are reasonable.
They believe his approach is the wrong one but in interviews they are now talking about the negative consequences of trade imbalances and globalisation – the impact on communities and the undercutting of wages.
That wasn’t the case just a few months ago.
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Ms Reeves took it one step further. On Wednesday, the Treasury announced plans to tackle the dumping of cheap goods into the UK – no doubt aimed at China.
She announced a review of the customs’ treatment of low-value imports.
Currently goods valued at £135 escape the duty. The US has already taken action.
In an interview with Sky News, she said she was acting in the “national interest” but she is also looking for common ground with the Americans, as she seeks a deal that secures a reduction in tariffs.
Speaking to US media on Thursday, she reiterated her shared concerns: “I absolutely understand the concerns the United States have about imbalances in trade in the global economy, particularly when it comes to China that runs large, persistent trade surpluses with countries around the world, including the US and indeed including the United Kingdom.”
The IMF too. While the Fund sharply downgrades global growth forecasts, it shied away from openly criticising the US president.
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IMF slashes UK growth forecast
Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF’s managing director, spoke of an erosion of trust between countries, and “concerns about the uneven distribution of gains from economic integration, its impact on the international division of labour, supply chain security, and global imbalances”.
So, Mr Trump has got policymakers to shift their priorities.
At the very least, he has brought a long-simmering issue to the boil. The world is thinking differently about China now.
The US is also showing signs that it’s thinking differently. After a bruising showdown with the bond markets, Mr Trump has rowed back on his liberation day tariffs.
The administration has softened its language, saying it wants reform and to work with institutions.
The president said tariffs could come down substantially on China.
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However, a lot of damage has already been done – not only his erratic tariffs policy, but also his attack on institutions, including the US Federal Reserve.
The world is now thinking differently about the US too, as are the markets.
Investors normally dive into US assets – government debt and the dollar – during times of turmoil, but Mr Trump’s pronouncement has caused traders to do the opposite.
There are signs that the world is losing faith in the US’ ultimate safe haven status.
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