Why Canada’s election result is an uncomfortable one for Dutton

Moreover, it’s just the vibe of the thing – people look at the US going hard in one direction and think: let’s not copy that.

To be fair, Poilievre gained seats. He may yet hold the Liberals to minority government. But that is a major letdown for a party that once enjoyed a 25-point poll lead.

The big loser on election night was the progressive New Democratic Party, which shed half its vote. Its leader, Jagmeet Singh, was among more than a dozen NDP parliamentarians who were set to lose their seats, and the party was poised to lose party status.

Ultimately, those progressive voters, spooked by Poilievre and scared of Trump, opted for Mark Carney’s Liberals.

Mark Carney is not exactly the consummate political candidate. He has no experience in electoral politics: he’s an economist who studied at Harvard and Oxford, worked at Goldman Sachs and went on to run central banks in Canada and the UK.

He doesn’t light up the stage; he speaks capably but carefully. Daniel Beland, director of the Institute for the Study of Canada at McGill University, described him in The Guardian as “a boring guy who in general doesn’t have a lot of charisma”.

But he suits the moment. He is a steady hand at a time of chaos, and someone with the financial literacy and experience to negotiate with Trump the businessman.

The dynamic is different in Australia, and far less intense. Trump is not breathing down the country’s neck on a daily basis. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese may be a steady hand, but Dutton can say he is better placed as a conservative to talk to Trump and secure a deal, and has exploited Albanese’s failure to get the president back on the phone.

Still, the implications from Canada are obvious. For conservatives, the Trump effect is difficult to escape.

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