Will 15% Penetration Be the New Normal for Australia?

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Amidst the vicissitudes of the Australian auto market, it seems like plugin vehicle registrations have found a new normal — at approximately 15% of the market. I am holding my breath in anticipation of this continuing through the next few months, or dare I hope for even more improvement. In August 2025, 103,694 light passenger vehicles were launched onto Australian roads. Of these, 9.7% were battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and 4% were plugin hybrids (PHEVs). That’s over 10,000 BEVs and almost 4,000 PHEVs. Most PHEVs were from BYD — the Shark 6 and the Sealion 6.

Still no figures from newcomer Xpeng or for the aging MG ZS EV.

To put these percentages into perspective — 6 years ago, when I bought my Tesla Model 3, the penetration rate was 0.8%. Then a few years later, in 2022, it crept up to 3%. The penetration rate doubled the next year. Just this year, it has hovered between 10% and 15%. So, June (15%), July (12%), and August now (15%) bode well for a new normal. Mainstream media is taking notice, with headlines about the fact that Chinese brands BYD, GWM, MG, and Chery all broke into the Australian top ten for the first time. Of course, they don’t point out that many of these come with a plug.

The top ten BEVs in Australia in August 2025 were:

1. Tesla Model Y — 2,324 (year to date — 13,310)
2. BYD Sealion 7 — 1,413 (year to date — 6,596)
3. BYD Seal — 623 (YTD — 2,505)
4. Tesla Model 3 — 603 (YTD — 4,680)
5. BYD Atto 3 — 594 (YTD — 2,724)
6. BYD Dolphin — 434 (YTD — 2,046)
7. Geely EX5 — 401 (YTD — 2,736)
8. Kia EV5 — 367 (YTD — 3,594)
9. Kia EV3 — 295 (YTD — 1,699)
10. MG S5 — 284 (YTD — 798)

Worthy of note but not quite making the leaderboard, from Germany, the VW ID.4 had more than 200 sales in August. Perhaps the European carmakers will make an impact after all.

Tesla Model Y deliveries were up a staggering 75% year on year, yet were eclipsed by BYD, whose deliveries were up over 300%. BYD has plans to launch even more models over the next few months and may soon push everyone but Tesla out of the top ten — stay tuned! Though, MG and Geely seem able to mount a bit of competition.

4×4 Media is noticing the rise and rise of the BYD Shark PHEV, which was the #6 best seller in the ute market, moving 1,261 units in August alone. Year to date, the BYD Shark 6 has 12,918 sales. Another outlet noted that “Diesel ute sales dipped slightly (1.4 per cent), while petrol variants fell sharply (26.4 per cent).”

Noting the slippage in Toyota sales, some are blaming this on the need for a refreshed Hilux, but table napkin calculations make it obvious that fossil fuel vehicle sales decreases are roughly in the same ballpark as PHEV increases — around about 3,000 vehicles. I think this author is missing the point!

Of course, with the rise of plugin vehicles comes the loss of the federal government’s fuel excise cash cow. Almost 30% of the cost of a litre of petrol or diesel in Australia goes to government coffers. Despite the illusion that this is for road maintenance, not all of it is spent on traffic improvements. It ends up in consolidated revenue. How will we make up the loss of revenue? Why, with a road user charge (RUC) of course — quick, before too many voters go electric!

Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries chief executive Tony Weber states: “FCAI has long been a supporter of a nationally consistent road user charge that ultimately can be applied to all types of vehicles, not just EVs. As the number of electrified vehicles increases, governments must support a smooth transition away from fuel excise. A road user charge is needed to provide an enduring revenue stream to support road and recharging infrastructure.”

Of course, this has sparked wide debate in the mainstream community, who have frequently labelled EV owners as freeloaders because they do not pay the fossil fuel excise. Just another insult to add to their repertoire. The EV community is divided, with some (like myself) feeling that a reasonable charge is bearable, whereas others feel that their contribution to clean air should be taken into account. The national treasurers are meeting and we await the magic figure which will be imposed on us and the methodology of its implementation.

Another current debate in the Australian automative press is the place of plugin hybrid electric vehicles. Initially seen as a transitional technology, PHEVs have now become the growing edge of plugin vehicle adoption. Is it a good thing or a bad thing? Are PHEVs a stepping stone to full battery electrics, or a handbrake on the transition?

“Chris Jones, president of the Australian Electric Vehicle Association, says PHEVs are undermining Australia’s emission reduction goals.” My take is that it is the Australian drivers’ obsession with utes that is leading to the sales surge in PHEVs. The majority of the PHEVs being sold are utes. ABC goes on to tell us “BEV sales, as a proportion of new car sales, have actually plateaued at less than 9 per cent over the past two years. But PHEVs recently shot from 1 per cent to 5 per cent of sales in less than a year.” 12,000 PHEV utes have been sold in the last 12 months — mainly by BYD.

I can fully understand why a “ute guy” would buy a PHEV. Versatility, power, range needs. Add to that there are no fully electric utes available in Australia yet. I am hearing reports that the Geely Radar will be available soon. It will be interesting to see how it is received.

Each new model released appears to move the needle to a higher percentage — the Model Y, the BYD Atto 3, and now PHEV utes.

On a personal note, we held our monthly EV meeting at the local tavern yesterday. One of our guests noted that he hadn’t been for a few years – and back then it was just Tesla Model 3’s, Polestar 2’s, and BYD’s Atto. As you can see from the photos, there is now a much broader selection — even a delivery van and a Cyberster! The future continues to be bright, electric, and diverse Down Under.